The Uncomfortable Truth About Our Obsession with Failure
Here’s a question that’ll make you squirm in your maintenance manager chair: If you could predict when you’re going to have a heart attack, would you rather live a healthy life and avoid it entirely, or would you live carelessly, knowing you can predict the signs and symptoms?
The answer seems obvious, right? We’d choose to avoid the heart attack altogether. We’d eat better, exercise more, manage stress, and take care of our bodies. We wouldn’t just get really good at predicting when our arteries would clog—we’d prevent the clogging in the first place.
So why the hell are we obsessed with predicting equipment failures instead of preventing them?
The maintenance industry has fallen head-over-heels in love with predictive maintenance like it’s the second coming of sliced bread. Vendors are lining up to sell you sensors, algorithms, and analytics platforms, all promising to tell you exactly when your assets will fail. But here’s what they’re not telling you—what they don’t want you to realize: Predictive maintenance is enabling our worst habits.
It’s teaching us to accept that our equipment will fail. We’re getting really, really good at reacting faster to problems instead of eliminating the problems altogether. We’ve become the maintenance equivalent of chain smokers who’ve invested in the world’s best lung cancer detection technology instead of just putting down the cigarettes.
The Seductive Lie of “Smart” Failure Management
Let me paint you a picture of what’s happening in plants across America right now. Your motor is vibrating like a paint mixer? Great! We’ll slap some sensors on it and predict when it fails. Your pump is cavitating so badly it sounds like a blender full of marbles? Awesome! Our AI will tell you exactly when to replace it. Your compressor is running so inefficiently it’s burning money faster than a Vegas slot machine? No problem! We’ll forecast the breakdown down to the hour.
But what if—and hear me out here—what if we just fixed the root causes?
What if we balanced that motor properly in the first place? What if we addressed the cavitation issue by fixing the suction conditions? What if we optimized that compressor system so it ran efficiently instead of limping along until it dies?
I know, I know. Crazy talk, right?
The uncomfortable truth is this: Predictive maintenance is often a band-aid on poor asset health practices. It’s reactive thinking disguised as proactive strategy. It’s like putting a smoke detector in every room of your house while leaving the stove on and the electrical wiring exposed.
Don’t get me wrong—I’m not anti-technology. At DigitalThinker, we’ve been implementing HxGN EAM systems for over 20 years, and we absolutely believe in the power of data and analytics. But prediction has its place, and that place comes after you’ve mastered the fundamentals, not instead of them.
When you’re already doing everything right to keep your assets healthy—when you’ve got proper installation procedures, quality lubrication programs, precision maintenance practices, and root cause analysis baked into your DNA—then yes, predict the unpredictable. Use technology to catch the things you can’t prevent. But most organizations are skipping straight to the sexy tech without ever learning to walk.
The Real Cost of Accepting Failure as Inevitable
Here’s where this gets expensive, and I mean really expensive. When we accept failure as inevitable, we stop asking the right questions. Instead of asking “Why did this fail?” we ask “When will this fail next?” Instead of investing in proper installation and maintenance practices, we invest in failure prediction systems. Instead of training our people to prevent problems, we train them to react to alarms.
I was talking to a plant manager last month—let’s call him Dave—who was bragging about his new predictive maintenance system. “Alex,” he said, “we can predict bearing failures three weeks out now. It’s incredible!”
“That’s great, Dave,” I replied. “But why are your bearings failing in the first place?”
Silence.
“Well,” he finally said, “bearings fail. That’s just what they do.”
No, Dave. Bearings fail because we let them fail. They fail because we don’t align them properly. They fail because we contaminate the lubricant. They fail because we over-grease or under-grease them. They fail because we ignore the fundamentals and then act surprised when physics wins.
Dave’s plant was spending $200,000 a year on predictive maintenance technology to manage failures that could have been prevented with $50,000 worth of proper training and basic precision maintenance practices. But the vendor didn’t tell him that. The vendor told him he needed to “embrace the future of maintenance” and “leverage AI to optimize asset performance.”
What Dave really needed was to embrace the fundamentals of maintenance and leverage his people to optimize asset health.
The Fundamentals They Don’t Want You to Focus On
While vendors are busy selling you the latest and greatest failure prediction technology, they’re hoping you won’t notice that the real solutions aren’t sexy. They don’t require million-dollar software licenses or teams of data scientists. They require discipline, training, and a commitment to doing things right.
Here’s what actually prevents failures:
- Proper Installation Procedures: When you install equipment correctly the first time—with proper alignment, appropriate foundation, correct torque specifications—it doesn’t fail prematurely. Revolutionary concept, I know.
- Quality Lubrication Programs: When you use the right lubricant, in the right amount, at the right intervals, and keep it clean, your equipment runs longer. Who would have thought?
- Precision Maintenance Practices: When your technicians are trained to use proper tools and techniques, when they understand tolerances and specifications, when they take pride in their work—equipment lasts.
- Root Cause Analysis: When something does fail, instead of just replacing it and moving on, you dig deep to understand why it failed and fix the underlying cause.
- Operator Care Training: When your operators understand how their actions affect equipment health, when they’re trained to spot early warning signs, when they take ownership of the assets they run—magic happens.
These aren’t new concepts. They’re not cutting-edge. They’re not going to win any innovation awards. But they work. They’ve always worked. And they’ll keep working long after the current crop of AI vendors has moved on to the next shiny object.
When Prediction Actually Makes Sense
Now, before you think I’ve gone completely Luddite on you, let me be clear: there absolutely is a place for predictive maintenance. But it’s not where most people think it is.
Predictive maintenance makes sense when you’ve already optimized your asset health practices and you want to catch the truly unpredictable. It makes sense for critical assets where even a well-maintained component might fail due to factors beyond your control. It makes sense when you’re dealing with assets that are inherently difficult to maintain or inspect.
But here’s the key: prediction should be the cherry on top of a solid maintenance sundae, not the entire dessert.
I’ve seen plants that have implemented world-class precision maintenance programs, where technicians are trained and certified, where root cause analysis is standard practice, where equipment is properly installed and maintained. In those plants, predictive maintenance technology provides real value because it’s catching the 5% of failures that couldn’t be prevented, not the 95% that could have been.
Those plants aren’t using prediction to manage chronic problems they’re using it to optimize already excellent performance. They’re not predicting when their poorly maintained equipment will fail they’re predicting when their well-maintained equipment might need attention.
That’s the difference between using technology as a crutch and using it as a tool.
The Path Forward: A Maintenance Revolution
So what’s the answer? How do we break free from this cycle of accepting failure and start preserving asset life?
It starts with a fundamental shift in mindset. Instead of asking “When will this fail?” we need to start asking “Why would this fail?” Instead of investing in failure prediction, we need to invest in failure prevention. Instead of getting better at managing problems, we need to get better at eliminating them.
This isn’t just about maintenance. It’s about leadership. It’s about having the courage to say no to the shiny objects and yes to the fundamentals. It’s about investing in your people instead of just your technology. It’s about measuring success not by how quickly you can respond to failures, but by how few failures you have to respond to.
At DigitalThinker, we’ve seen this transformation happen. We’ve worked with plants that have reduced their maintenance costs by 40% not by predicting failures better, but by preventing them altogether. We’ve seen organizations where unplanned downtime has become so rare that when it does happen, it’s a learning opportunity, not a crisis.
These transformations don’t happen overnight, and they don’t happen because of software. They happen because leaders make the decision to prioritize asset health over failure management. They happen because organizations invest in training their people, improving their processes, and building a culture of excellence.
Your Assets Are Trying to Tell You Something
Here’s the thing that keeps me up at night: your assets are trying to tell you something. They’re sending signals every day about their health, their needs, their problems. But instead of listening to those signals and addressing the underlying issues, we’re teaching machines to predict when the signals will stop.
Your motor isn’t vibrating because it wants to fail. It’s vibrating because something is wrong. Your pump isn’t cavitating because it’s reached its expiration date. It’s cavitating because the system conditions aren’t right.
Your compressor isn’t inefficient because it’s old. It’s inefficient because it needs attention.
Stop predicting their death and start preserving their life.
The goal isn’t to get better at managing failure. The goal is to eliminate failure. The goal isn’t to react faster to problems. The goal is to prevent problems from occurring in the first place.
Join the Revolution
I’m not asking you to throw away your sensors or cancel your predictive maintenance contracts. I’m asking you to put them in their proper place. Use them as tools to optimize already-excellent practices, not as substitutes for those practices.
Start with the fundamentals. Invest in your people. Train your technicians. Implement precision maintenance practices. Conduct proper root cause analysis. Build a culture where equipment health matters more than failure prediction.
And when you’ve mastered those fundamentals, when your equipment is properly installed, properly maintained, and properly cared for then add the predictive layer. Use technology to catch the truly unpredictable, not to manage the preventable.
The maintenance industry needs a revolution, and it starts with each of us making the decision to prioritize prevention over prediction, health over failure management, fundamentals over flashy technology.
What’s your take? Are you ready to stop predicting death and start preserving life? Are you willing to challenge the status quo and focus on what really matters?
I’d love to hear your thoughts. Drop me a line on LinkedIn or shoot me an email. Let’s start a conversation about what real maintenance excellence looks like.
Because your assets deserve better than a death sentence with a countdown timer.
They deserve a chance to live.